By: Tijani Salako.

Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.89 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting sustained growth momentum driven largely by the services sector, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The figures, which were disclosed through the official X account of the NBS, showed that the Q1 2026 growth rate was higher than the 3.13 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, indicating improved economic activities despite persistent inflationary pressures and foreign exchange challenges.

The latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released by the agency revealed that nominal GDP for the quarter stood at N110.79 trillion, while real GDP was valued at N51.26 trillion.

Analysis of quarterly performance showed that the economy maintained a steady growth trajectory over the past year, with GDP growth rates of 4.23 per cent in Q2 2025, 3.98 per cent in Q3 2025, 4.07 per cent in Q4 2025, before moderating slightly to 3.89 per cent in Q1 2026.

The NBS data further showed that the services sector remained the dominant driver of the economy, contributing 57.73 per cent to aggregate GDP during the review period. Agriculture accounted for 23.16 per cent, while industries contributed 19.11 per cent.

The strong performance of the services sector underscores the increasing importance of telecommunications, financial services, trade, transportation, information technology and other service-related activities in supporting economic expansion.

Meanwhile, the non-oil sector continued to dominate the economy, contributing 96.08 per cent to total GDP in Q1 2026, compared to the oil sector’s 3.92 per cent contribution.

The figures indicate Nigeria’s growing dependence on non-oil economic activities as the country intensifies efforts to diversify revenue sources away from crude oil exports.

Further breakdown of the report showed that non-oil GDP contribution remained consistently high over recent quarters, standing at 96.03 per cent in Q1 2025, 95.95 per cent in Q2 2025, 96.56 per cent in Q3 2025, and 97.13 per cent in Q4 2025 before settling at 96.08 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.

In contrast, oil GDP contribution fluctuated within a narrow range, rising from 3.97 per cent in Q1 2025 to 4.05 per cent in Q2 2025, before declining to 3.44 per cent in Q3 2025, 2.87 per cent in Q4 2025 and rebounding slightly to 3.92 per cent in Q1 2026.

Oil production also declined marginally during the quarter. Average daily crude oil production stood at 1.55 million barrels per day in Q1 2026, lower than the 1.58 million barrels per day recorded in Q4 2025 and 1.64 million barrels per day posted in Q3 2025.

However, production remained above the 1.42 million barrels per day recorded in Q1 2025, suggesting some recovery in upstream oil activities compared to the same period last year.

On a broader yearly basis, Nigeria’s GDP growth rate has continued to improve over the past five years. The economy grew by 0.95 per cent in 2021, 4.32 per cent in 2022, 3.04 per cent in 2023, 3.38 per cent in 2024 and 3.87 per cent in 2025.

Economic analysts said the latest GDP figures reflect resilience in key sectors of the economy, particularly services, despite macroeconomic headwinds including inflation, high borrowing costs and exchange rate volatility.

They noted that sustaining stronger growth would require improved infrastructure, increased productivity in agriculture and manufacturing, stable energy supply, and reforms capable of attracting both domestic and foreign investment into the productive sectors of the economy.