…Amupitan faces crucial electoral test as Adeleke, Oyebamiji, others battle for Bola-Ige house
By: Goodluck E.Adubazi, Abuja.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) faces a major credibility test as voters in Osun State prepare to elect their governor on Saturday, August 15, with vote-buying, logistics, security and political pressure emerging as major threats to the credibility of the poll.
Ajuluchukwu Brown in his analysis, said:”
the election, which pits incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party (AP) against All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Bola Oyebamiji and other contenders, is being closely watched as an important test of Nigeria’s evolving electoral system.
For INEC Chairman, Professor Joash Amupitan, the poll represents more than another off-cycle governorship election.
It is an opportunity to demonstrate whether the commission’s investments in technology, biometric accreditation, result management and institutional reforms can withstand the pressures associated with money politics, logistics and partisan interests.
The commission raised concern on Friday over the growing threat of vote-buying, warning that the practice could undermine the credibility of the election if not decisively tackled.
The warning has heightened concerns among stakeholders, particularly as allegations of inducement and other forms of voter manipulation have featured prominently in the final stages of the campaign.
Although some of the allegations circulating among political parties remain contested and cannot be treated as established facts, they underscore the increasingly sophisticated nature of electoral malpractice in Nigeria.
Unlike previous elections, where ballot-box snatching, ballot stuffing and manipulation of result sheets dominated concerns, vote-buying has emerged as one of the most persistent threats to electoral integrity.
Political actors can allegedly deploy party agents, intermediaries, community influencers and informal networks to induce voters, making the practice difficult to detect and prosecute.
The challenge for INEC, therefore, extends beyond deploying technology.
The commission must ensure that its electoral processes are protected from manipulation before, during and after voting.
Vote-Buying: Security Agencies Under Pressure
INEC can regulate polling officials, enforce electoral guidelines and deploy technology, but it cannot independently police every attempt to buy votes.
The responsibility consequently falls heavily on security agencies, including the Nigeria Police Force and other relevant law-enforcement bodies.
The Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) has also indicated plans to deploy personnel to monitor and combat vote trading.
Stakeholders, however, insist that enforcement must go beyond election-day arrests.
Unless electoral offences attract credible investigation and prosecution, political actors may continue to regard vote-buying as a manageable cost of winning elections.
Technology Versus Logistics
INEC’s technological preparations remain one of the strongest indicators of its readiness.
The commission has configured thousands of Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) devices for the election, including backup units, for the state’s 3,763 polling units.
INEC has also maintained that there will be no return to manual accreditation, reinforcing BVAS as the principal mechanism for authenticating voters before they cast their ballots.
But technology alone cannot conduct an election.
A fully functional BVAS device is of little value if electoral officials cannot reach their polling units on time.
Similarly, polling materials cannot guarantee a credible election if poor roads, communication challenges, inadequate transportation, power shortages or insecurity prevent officials from deploying effectively.
The real test, therefore, will not be the number of devices configured by INEC but whether polling units open on time, voters are properly accredited, materials arrive securely and results are handled in accordance with the law.
Osun Must Learn From Ekiti
The immediate reference point for INEC is the June 2026 Ekiti governorship election.
Although the poll produced a clear outcome, allegations of vote-buying and technological difficulties generated concerns and demonstrated that technological advancement alone cannot eliminate electoral controversies.
The lesson for Osun is clear: credible elections require several systems to function simultaneously.
Functional technology, trained personnel, reliable logistics, professional security agencies, transparent result management and political actors willing to respect electoral rules must all work together.
A breakdown in one area can undermine public confidence in the entire process.
Security: Protect The Right To Vote
Security remains another major uncertainty ahead of the election.
INEC and security authorities have repeatedly warned political parties and their supporters against violence as political tensions rise ahead of the poll.
Stakeholders say even a limited number of strategically targeted incidents could discourage voters in particular communities and affect turnout.
Security agencies must therefore do more than prevent violence. They must protect citizens’ right to vote.
This includes ensuring that voters can safely access polling units, election officials are not intimidated, political agents do not take control of polling locations and security personnel remain politically neutral.
Amupitan Faces Neutrality Test
Beyond technology, logistics and security lies another critical issue: public perception of INEC’s neutrality.
The election involves a sitting governor and a major opposition party, meaning virtually every decision by the commission—from movement of materials and accreditation to collation and declaration of results—will inevitably attract political interpretation.
INEC must therefore communicate transparently.
Where delays occur, the commission should explain them. Where technical failures arise, they should be disclosed.
Where complaints are found to be unfounded, the commission should state so, while officials who violate electoral rules must face appropriate sanctions.
Silence, stakeholders warn, could create a vacuum that political actors may fill with allegations and counter-allegations.
2027 Shadow Looms Over Osun
Beyond the immediate battle for Osogbo, the Osun election carries implications for the 2027 general elections.
The next general election will be considerably larger and more complex, involving presidential, National Assembly and state legislative contests across Nigeria.
With 30 local government areas, 332 wards, 3,763 polling units and more than 2.3 million registered voters, Osun provides INEC with a manageable but significant laboratory for testing its systems ahead of 2027.
The commission should therefore conduct a comprehensive post-election audit to determine where logistics succeeded or failed, the number of BVAS malfunctions recorded, the speed of replacement deployment, the number of polling units that opened late and the causes of such delays.
It should also document reported cases of vote-buying, assess the response of security agencies and determine how quickly election-related complaints were resolved.
Such an exercise would enable INEC to turn the Osun election into institutional learning ahead of 2027.
INEC Not Alone
However, the credibility of the election cannot rest solely on INEC.
Political parties and candidates must determine whether campaigns remain issue-based rather than violent. Security agencies must enforce electoral laws.
The judiciary must ensure that violations have consequences, while civil society and the media must accurately document abuses.
Voters also have a critical responsibility.
While economic hardship makes cash inducement attractive to many citizens, normalising vote-buying risks turning the ballot into a commodity rather than an instrument for choosing accountable leadership.
The solution, stakeholders argue, requires both stronger enforcement and broader political reforms.
The Real Verdict
The Osun election will produce one political winner, but INEC faces a separate contest: winning back the confidence of Nigerians who have watched successive electoral reforms deliver mixed results.
The commission has invested in technology, strengthened biometric accreditation, expanded backup capacity and intensified stakeholder engagement.
Now comes the real test—delivery.
Professor Amupitan must ensure that INEC’s technological sophistication is matched by effective logistics, competent personnel, transparent decision-making and credible coordination with security agencies.
The police and other law-enforcement bodies must demonstrate that vote-buying, intimidation and other electoral offences have consequences.
Political parties, meanwhile, must recognise that victory achieved through inducement or intimidation may confer political power but cannot guarantee democratic legitimacy. As Osun goes to the polls on August 15, the question is therefore bigger than who succeeds Adeleke.
Can INEC make the ballot more powerful than money, fear and political machinery?
Ajuluchukwu Brown, noted The answer will not only determine the credibility of the Osun election. It could also provide one of the clearest indications yet of Nigeria’s preparedness for the much larger electoral battle ahead in 2027.
