By: Tijani Salako.

Petrol prices in Nigeria have surged sharply over the past few weeks, with retail pump prices reaching as high as ₦1,235 per litre at selected filling stations, data obtained from market checks show. This marks a significant rise from ₦930 per litre just last week, according to fresh price observations.

Across several outlets, including some depots labelled “AP,” petrol was recorded at ₦1,230 per litre, compared with about ₦828 two weeks ago, highlighting a steep short-term escalation in fuel costs. Stations linked to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) reported petrol prices climbing from about ₦1,100 to roughly ₦1,200 per litre over the same period. Diesel continues to sell at around ₦1,600 per litre in many outlets.

Industry sources say that retail fuel prices have been adjusted in accordance with official memos received from depots and refineries, signalling that the increases are being reflected down the supply chain ahead of reaching consumers.

The recent price movements come amid broader volatility in global crude markets, driven in part by geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions, which have driven up landing and replacement costs for fuel products.

Mr Muda Yusuf, an economist, warned that the implications of rising fuel prices are wide-ranging and immediate. He explained that higher petrol costs are inherently inflationary, as transport and logistics expenses increase, forcing businesses to pass on the additional costs to consumers.

“For instance, food inflation, which had just recently shown signs of easing, may reverse with this kind of price spike,” Yusuf noted.

He also highlighted the impact on business profit margins, saying that rising pump prices increase production costs and may reduce profitability. “Not all businesses can transfer these costs to consumers; if they cannot, they will feel the heat directly. This inevitably affects households, especially those with low purchasing power, worsening poverty levels,” he said.

Mr Yusuf added that the overall welfare of households could be undermined, as rising fuel costs affect operations across industries that rely heavily on logistics and energy, ultimately reducing purchasing power and household welfare.

In recent weeks, the Dangote Refinery revised its gantry price for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) several times. Ex-depot petrol prices reportedly rose to about ₦1,175 per litre, reflecting higher production and market costs. AP outlets and NNPCL-linked stations also adjusted prices, citing logistics and supply costs as key factors in the new rates.

Retail fuel price spikes have been observed nationwide, indicating that some independent stations charge as high as ₦1,300 per litre in certain cities, including Ibadan and parts of Plateau State.

Rising petrol prices are already feeding into transport and production costs, as businesses adjust operational budgets to cope with higher fuel expenses. Transport operators have begun increasing fares in several cities to accommodate elevated fuel prices, a development that directly affects ordinary Nigerians.

Economic analysts have warned that if prices continue to climb, inflation could spike, driving up the cost of daily goods and services. This could worsen living conditions for households that are already struggling with limited purchasing power.

Despite Nigeria’s expanding refining capacity, domestic output has yet to fully insulate the country from international crude price fluctuations, meaning local pump prices continue to be influenced by global market trends.

Industry watchers note that NNPCL and other marketers adjust retail prices based on supply chain costs and depot memos, a mechanism that ensures consistent distribution but leaves consumers exposed to frequent price changes.

Consumer groups and civil society organizations have expressed concern about the impact of rising fuel prices on households, urging authorities to monitor prices closely and explore interventions to cushion the effects on ordinary Nigerians.

As the market adjusts, petrol prices remain a critical barometer for the broader economy, with transport costs, business operations, and household expenditures all poised to feel the consequences of sustained fuel price inflation.