Nigeria’s much-touted push away from crude oil gained fresh momentum in 2025 as non-oil exports surged to $6.1 billion, an 11.5 per cent jump from the $5.4 billion recorded in 2024, reinforcing claims of diversification even as deeper structural risks persist.

Yet, a sobering World Bank warning has cast a shadow over the optimism, noting that cassava, rice, maize and wheat alone account for 45 per cent of calories consumed across Africa, exposing the continent’s dangerous dependence on a narrow food basket.

Presenting her progress report and 2026 export outlook, the Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, said the export leap was driven by higher volumes and wider access to international markets, signalling stronger global integration for Nigeria’s non-oil economy.

Official figures from pre-shipment inspection agencies, cited by NEPC, confirmed that the sector delivered its strongest performance to date, validating claims of sustained expansion.

“The non-oil export sector rose to approximately $6.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of about 11.5 per cent over and above the $5.4 billion recorded in 2024,” Ayeni disclosed.

She stressed that the milestone marked the highest formal non-oil export value since NEPC was established nearly five decades ago, overtaking the record set just a year earlier.

Ayeni added that rising export values were backed by increased shipment volumes, with total non-oil exports hitting 8.02 million metric tonnes in 2025, compared to 7.29 million metric tonnes in 2024 — a 10 per cent rise.

Data from 2025 further revealed that Nigeria exported 281 different non-oil products, pointing to gradual progress in value addition and broader participation across global markets.

Exports spanned agriculture, processed goods and solid minerals, suggesting improvements in production capacity and deeper supply-chain integration across multiple sectors.

However, despite the headline growth, a large share of Nigeria’s non-oil trade still occurs informally through land borders, a reality that continues to undermine the country’s ability to fully harness its export potential.

Beyond Nigeria, a World Bank report titled Food at a Crossroads: The Nexus Between Transport, Logistics, and Food Security in Africa warned that Africa’s reliance on a few staple foods leaves the continent highly exposed to supply disruptions, price shocks and climate-related risks.

The report noted that although cassava, rice, maize and wheat dominate African diets, significant volumes are imported from Europe, South Asia and other regions.

Africa, according to the World Bank, imports more than 30 million tonnes of maize, over 35 million tonnes of rice, and roughly 60 million tonnes of wheat annually.

“Just four key commodities account for 45 per cent of caloric intake across Africa… making transport a pivotal component in addressing food insecurity,” the report stated.

Once these staples reach African shores, they face further setbacks from inadequate port infrastructure, inefficient logistics and long inland journeys.

On average, food travels about 4,000 kilometres over 23 days in Africa — four times longer than in Europe — heightening the risks of spoilage, losses and delayed access for households.

Seaports handle just 14 per cent of Africa’s food imports, rising to 22 per cent for landlocked countries and 37 per cent for the poorest nations, yet many ports are plagued by outdated systems and low capacity.

After clearance, imported food must contend with weak road networks, congested borders and poor rural connectivity, factors that inflate costs and limit affordability.

The World Bank stressed that investment in modern storage facilities, improved logistics and better handling practices could significantly reduce losses and stabilise food supply.

For Nigeria, the warning carries particular urgency, as the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) projects that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food shortages during the 2026 lean season between June and August — a looming crisis threatening to undercut recent export gains.